McCain Romney Huckabee Politics Personal Destruction Dole Electability Obama Clinton 2008 Election Polls Truth Rhinos

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

DON'T DRINK THE ELECTABILITY KOOLAID, POLLS NOT DETERMINATIVE

JANUARY 1980 GALLUP POLL
Carter 63%
Reagan 32%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1900709/posts

NOVEMBER 1980 ELECTION RESULTS
Reagan won the 1980 presidential election, carrying 44 states with 489 electoral votes to 49 electoral votes for Carter (representing six states and Washington, D.C.)!! But interestingly, in 1976 Reagan lost the Republican Primary to the RINO Gerald Ford 1,187 to 1,070. History repeats itself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan

VOTERS BEWARE! MATCHUPS ARE IRRELEVANT
Head to head matchups are irrelevant this early in January or February: 1) 90% of the media is Democrat so polls are often biased or misleading, 2) potential third party spoilers make head-to-head completely irrelevant, 3) name recognition and familiarity always tighten the race, 4) unpredictable circumstances at the time of an election largely shape results.

On point two, can anyone say Ross Perot, Mayor Bloomberg, and Ralph Nader? On point three, Hilary and McCain are recognizable names, but Obama and Romney are still unknown quantities that the public is slowly getting to know. On point four, campaigns are often unpredictable. Wasn't Guiliani the 'clear' frontrunner last year and McCain's campaign literally dead? Wasn't Hilary the 'inevitable candidate' just two months ago? So much for the polls...

1 comment:

lazer said...

Koolaid stinks!! I like Ovaltine!
Its not over until the delegates are gone!